Short answer: since 1950 the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every one of the 19 midterm elections — on average +15.1%, from election day to the same date a year later. The weakest year still finished up 1.1% (1986–87, a window that contained the 1987 crash); the strongest gained 33.2% (1954–55). The 2026 midterms are on Tuesday, November 3, so the clock for this cycle starts this week.
That record is real, and we checked it ourselves against the index's daily history rather than repeating the headline. But the same data shows three things the headline leaves out: the midterm year itself is often bad, the drop inside it averages 17.5%, and 19 elections is a small sample. Here is the whole picture, and what it means for what you do with your portfolio this week.
Who this is for: people with a 401(k), an IRA or a brokerage account wondering whether to do anything before or after November 3. What it does not cover: which party will win, individual stock picks, or forecasts. All returns below are the S&P 500 price index, without dividends; past patterns are not a promise about the next 12 months. Nothing here is financial advice.
The record19 midterms, 19 gains
The table measures each cycle the same way: the close on election day (or the last close before it) to the close on the same date a year later. That is the window the "19 for 19" claim refers to.
Every bar is positive. The average is +15.1%; the smallest gain, +1.1%, came in the 12 months that included the October 1987 crash.
Show these figures as a table
| Value (% change) | |
|---|---|
| 1950 | 16.2 |
| 1954 — Best: +33.2% | 33.2 |
| 1958 | 11.1 |
| 1962 | 24.8 |
| 1966 | 12.9 |
| 1970 | 12.7 |
| 1974 | 18.7 |
| 1978 | 6.4 |
| 1982 | 19.9 |
| 1986 — Weakest: +1.1% | 1.1 |
| 1990 | 25.1 |
| 1994 | 27.1 |
| 1998 | 22 |
| 2002 | 14.9 |
| 2006 | 6.7 |
| 2010 | 3.7 |
| 2014 | 4.5 |
| 2018 | 11.7 |
| 2022 | 14.5 |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes, downloaded November 1, 2026 · drafts/midterm-elections-stock-market-2026-numbers.mjs
In dollars: $10,000 in an S&P 500 index fund on election day would have been worth about $11,510 a year later at the average, $10,110 in the weakest cycle and $13,320 in the best — before dividends, which have yielded between about 1% and 7% a year since 1950 depending on the era.
Our numbers match what the big houses publish. J.P. Morgan Asset Management (October 7, 2026) puts the average at about 15% with positive returns after every midterm since 1950; YCharts and others report the same 19-for-19 count. Averages you see elsewhere — 16.6%, 18.8% — start the clock earlier (October, or the year's low), which flatters the result.
Why it happensThe usual explanations, and how much to trust them
Nobody can prove why a pattern with 19 observations exists, but four explanations come up again and again:
Uncertainty ends
Markets dislike not knowing who will write tax and spending laws. Election day removes that question, whichever way it goes, and investors who waited on the sidelines come back.
Gridlock
The president's party has lost House seats in most midterms since World War II. A divided government passes fewer big laws — which markets tend to read as fewer surprises.
The presidential cycle
The third year of a presidential term has historically been the strongest of the four, possibly because administrations push for growth before the next presidential election.
A low base
Midterm years often contain a sharp mid-year sell-off, so the 12 months after the election start from a depressed level and partly just recover it.
The last point matters most. Part of the "post-midterm rally" is simply the bounce after a bad midterm year — which is why 2026, a year without a deep sell-off, is the case where that tailwind is weakest.
The fine printWhat the 19-for-19 headline leaves out
Up 19 of 19 times, +15.1% on average
Measured from election day to the same date a year later. True for every midterm since 1950, and confirmed by our own run of the daily index history.
Only 11 of 19 midterm years ended higher
The calendar year averaged just +4.7%, the average drop inside it was 17.5%, and from election day to December 31 the index rose in 13 of 19 years — it fell in six, including −9.0% in 2018.
Election day → same date next year
- Years up
- 19 of 19
- Average
- +15.1%
Same November window, all other years
- Years up
- 38 of 56
- Average
- +7.3%
Midterm calendar year (Jan → Dec)
- Years up
- 11 of 19
- Average
- +4.7%
Election day → December 31
- Years up
- 13 of 19
- Average
- +2.6%
Deepest drop inside the midterm year
- Years up
- —
- Average
- −17.5%
| Window | Years up | Average |
|---|---|---|
| Election day → same date next year | 19 of 19 | +15.1% |
| Same November window, all other years | 38 of 56 | +7.3% |
| Midterm calendar year (Jan → Dec) | 11 of 19 | +4.7% |
| Election day → December 31 | 13 of 19 | +2.6% |
| Deepest drop inside the midterm year | — | −17.5% |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes · drafts/midterm-elections-stock-market-2026-numbers.mjs
Three cautions before you lean on the pattern:
- 19 is a small sample. A coin that lands heads 19 times in a row is unusual, but here the "coin" is correlated with long bull markets: stocks rose in most 12-month windows of the last 75 years anyway (the non-midterm average is +7.3%, and two-thirds of those years were up too).
- It says nothing about the path. The 1986–87 window ended +1.1%, but inside it the index fell about a third in the October 1987 crash. A positive 12-month number can contain a drop you would have hated living through.
- It ignores what the market already priced in. In 2026 the index hit a record on October 6 and was up 10.7% by October 30. A rally that already happened cannot also happen again just because the calendar says so.
2026 so farA midterm year that did not follow the script
The typical midterm year sells off into the summer and rallies after the vote. 2026 did the first part mildly and skipped ahead on the second:
End of 2025
- Date
- Dec 31, 2025
- Close
- 6,845.50
2026 low
- Date
- Mar 30, 2026
- Close
- 6,343.72
Record high
- Date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Close
- 7,818.93
Latest
- Date
- Oct 30, 2026
- Close
- 7,580.07 (+10.7% YTD)
| Point | Date | Close |
|---|---|---|
| End of 2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | 6,845.50 |
| 2026 low | Mar 30, 2026 | 6,343.72 |
| Record high | Oct 6, 2026 | 7,818.93 |
| Latest | Oct 30, 2026 | 7,580.07 (+10.7% YTD) |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily closes, through October 30, 2026
The deepest drop so far was 9.1%, about half the average midterm-year decline. The last trading day before this article was a reminder that elections are not the only thing that moves prices: on October 30 the index fell 1.8%, the day after the $6.3 billion Binance hack rattled crypto and risk assets.
What to doFive moves that do not depend on who wins
The best use of the midterm pattern is to stop worrying about the election, not to trade it. If the 12 months after a midterm have always been positive, the cost of staying invested through the vote has historically been zero — and the cost of selling and missing the rebound has been high.
Rebalance to your targets
A year like 2026 pushes stocks above their target weight. Trim back to your plan — in a 401(k) or IRA there is no tax on the trade. Our guide to how often to rebalance covers the thresholds.
Check concentration
The S&P 500 is top-heavy: a handful of companies drive much of its return. If you also hold those names directly, you may own far more of them than you think — see how much of the S&P 500 is Nvidia.
Keep near-term money out of stocks
Cash you need within a year or two — a down payment, tuition, an emergency fund — should not depend on what happens after November 3. Our emergency fund guide shows how much to keep.
Harvest losses before December 31
Positions below what you paid can be sold to offset gains and up to $3,000 of ordinary income. The capital gains calculator shows the tax effect.
Automate the next contribution
If you have cash waiting for 'after the election', invest it on a schedule instead of picking a day. Our comparison of lump sum vs dollar-cost averaging shows the trade-off.
To see whether the vote changes anything in your own accounts, put the holdings in one place. The Portfolio Tracker shows the allocation by asset type and account, flags drift against the target weight you set for each holding, compares the portfolio with a benchmark like the S&P 500, and keeps the lot-level gains you need for tax-loss harvesting. The asset allocation calculator helps set those targets in the first place.
Where these numbers come from
- Index data: daily closes of the S&P 500 price index (^GSPC) from Yahoo Finance, downloaded November 1, 2026, from January 3, 1950 to October 30, 2026. Dividends are not included, so total returns were higher.
- Election days: the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of each midterm year. Where the market was closed, the last close before it is used; the end point is the close on or before the same date a year later.
- Calendar-year changes run from the last close of the previous year to the last close of the midterm year (1950 starts at January 3, 1950, the first close in the file). The intra-year drop is the deepest peak-to-trough decline inside each midterm year.
- Comparison years use the same early-November start and 12-month window for every non-midterm year from 1951 to 2024.
- Arithmetic is in
drafts/midterm-elections-stock-market-2026-numbers.mjs, which asserts the 19-of-19 count, the 15.1% average and the 1.1%/33.2% range. Cross-checked against J.P. Morgan Asset Management (October 7, 2026) and YCharts. - Limits: 19 observations; one index; no adjustment for inflation; the explanations in "Why it happens" are hypotheses, not findings.
FAQFrequently asked questions
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and about a third of Senate seats are on the ballot.
Does the stock market go up after midterm elections?
Historically, yes: the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after all 19 midterms since 1950, by 15.1% on average (price only). The midterm calendar year itself was positive only 11 times in 19, so the gains usually came after the vote.
Should I sell stocks before the election?
History argues against it. The 12 months after every midterm since 1950 were positive, so selling before the vote and waiting meant risking the rebound. If the election makes you uneasy, rebalance to your target allocation instead of moving everything to cash.
Does it matter which party wins the midterms?
Less than most people expect. The pattern held under Democratic and Republican presidents and in years when control of Congress changed hands. Markets have tended to welcome a divided government, which usually means fewer large policy surprises.
What was the worst year after a midterm?
1986–87: the S&P 500 gained just 1.1% from election day 1986 to the same date in 1987 — after falling roughly a third during the October 1987 crash inside that window.
Is 2026 likely to follow the pattern?
Nobody knows. 2026 is unusual because the index was already up 10.7% before the vote and its deepest drop was only 9.1%, so there is less of a sell-off to recover from than in a typical midterm year.
The takeawayStay invested, tidy up
Nineteen midterms, nineteen gains a year later — but also a midterm year that usually hurts first, and a sample small enough to treat as a tendency, not a rule. Use the week of the vote to rebalance, check what you really own and harvest losses before year-end, and let the Portfolio Tracker show you whether anything actually needs to change.
