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Estimate upfront costs, monthly utility savings, and the break-even payback period of your solar panel system
Payback Period
25-Year Utility Savings: $79,247 · Net Upfront Cost: $24,000
Net Lifetime Savings
$55,247
Return on Investment (ROI): 230.2%
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
10.23%
Annual Savings: $2,040
Monthly Bill Savings
$170
Net Upfront Cost: $24,000
Cumulative Savings vs. Net Upfront Cost
| Year | Panel Output | Annual Savings | Net Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100.0% | $2,040 | -$21,960 |
| 2 | 99.5% | $2,111 | -$19,849 |
| 3 | 99.0% | $2,184 | -$17,665 |
| 4 | 98.5% | $2,260 | -$15,404 |
| 5 | 98.0% | $2,339 | -$13,065 |
| 6 | 97.5% | $2,421 | -$10,644 |
| 7 | 97.0% | $2,505 | -$8,140 |
| 8 | 96.6% | $2,592 | -$5,548 |
| 9 | 96.1% | $2,682 | -$2,866 |
| 10 | 95.6% | $2,775 | -$90 |
| 11 | 95.1% | $2,872 | +$2,782 |
| 12 | 94.6% | $2,972 | +$5,754 |
| 13 | 94.2% | $3,075 | +$8,829 |
| 14 | 93.7% | $3,182 | +$12,012 |
| 15 | 93.2% | $3,293 | +$15,305 |
| 16 | 92.8% | $3,408 | +$18,713 |
| 17 | 92.3% | $3,526 | +$22,239 |
| 18 | 91.8% | $3,649 | +$25,888 |
| 19 | 91.4% | $3,776 | +$29,665 |
| 20 | 90.9% | $3,908 | +$33,572 |
| 21 | 90.5% | $4,044 | +$37,616 |
| 22 | 90.0% | $4,184 | +$41,800 |
| 23 | 89.6% | $4,330 | +$46,130 |
| 24 | 89.1% | $4,481 | +$50,610 |
| 25 | 88.7% | $4,636 | +$55,247 |
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Buying solar panels is structurally identical to purchasing a high-yielding, tax-free bond — but the arithmetic changed in 2026, because the 30% federal residential credit no longer exists for a system you buy. The DOE Solar Tax Credit Guide covers what remains. This calculator works from the full price you actually pay, plus degradation and utility inflation, to project long-term compound savings.
The federal residential credit ended after 2025. What is left is state and utility programmes, which vary by provider rather than by state — confirm yours in writing before signing.
Confirm with your installer how local utility net metering rules impact credit rates for excess electricity exported to the grid.
Most panels are warrantied for 25 years, but central or micro-inverters may require replacement around year 10-15.
Without the federal credit, the whole case now rests on two things: the price per watt you negotiate and what your utility charges. In an expensive state, rising rates still produce an IRR competitive with index funds; in a cheap one, the payback can run past fifteen years.
US states