"Uptober" is the crypto market's nickname for October, and it comes back every year on the first of the month. In 2026 it arrives after an unusual September: Bitcoin finished the month higher, in a month that has historically been its weakest. It closed September near $83,600, up from roughly $78,500 at the start of the month, after a dip toward $75,000 following the Federal Reserve's rate hike on September 16 and a high of $87,354, according to Decrypt's month-end report.
So is October really Bitcoin's best month, or is "Uptober" a meme that survives because people remember the good years? We pulled 13 full years of daily Bitcoin prices (2013–2025) and measured every October the same way. The short answer: October has the best typical month on record. It also includes years that would have liquidated a leveraged trader in the first two weeks.
The recordWhat 13 Octobers actually did
Measured from the last daily close of September to the last daily close of October:
2013
- September
- −1.8%
- October
- +61.2%
- Oct–Dec
- +478.6%
2014
- September
- −18.7%
- October
- −13.4%
- Oct–Dec
- −17.6%
2015
- September
- +2.6%
- October
- +32.7%
- Oct–Dec
- +81.5%
2016
- September
- +6.4%
- October
- +14.8%
- Oct–Dec
- +59.1%
2017
- September
- −8.6%
- October
- +48.3%
- Oct–Dec
- +221.2%
2018
- September
- −6.0%
- October
- −4.5%
- Oct–Dec
- −44.2%
2019
- September
- −13.8%
- October
- +10.5%
- Oct–Dec
- −13.5%
2020
- September
- −7.8%
- October
- +28.2%
- Oct–Dec
- +169.4%
2021
- September
- −7.3%
- October
- +40.3%
- Oct–Dec
- +5.9%
2022
- September
- −2.9%
- October
- +5.4%
- Oct–Dec
- −15.0%
2023
- September
- +3.9%
- October
- +28.4%
- Oct–Dec
- +56.5%
2024
- September
- +7.3%
- October
- +11.2%
- Oct–Dec
- +47.6%
2025
- September
- +5.2%
- October
- −3.9%
- Oct–Dec
- −23.2%
| Year | September | October | Oct–Dec |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | −1.8% | +61.2% | +478.6% |
| 2014 | −18.7% | −13.4% | −17.6% |
| 2015 | +2.6% | +32.7% | +81.5% |
| 2016 | +6.4% | +14.8% | +59.1% |
| 2017 | −8.6% | +48.3% | +221.2% |
| 2018 | −6.0% | −4.5% | −44.2% |
| 2019 | −13.8% | +10.5% | −13.5% |
| 2020 | −7.8% | +28.2% | +169.4% |
| 2021 | −7.3% | +40.3% | +5.9% |
| 2022 | −2.9% | +5.4% | −15.0% |
| 2023 | +3.9% | +28.4% | +56.5% |
| 2024 | +7.3% | +11.2% | +47.6% |
| 2025 | +5.2% | −3.9% | −23.2% |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · Coin Metrics daily PriceUSD · drafts/bitcoin-uptober-numbers.mjs
October finished higher in 10 of 13 years. Its average gain was +19.9% and its median +14.8%. CoinGlass, which most "Uptober" posts quote, puts the October average at 19.92%, so the two datasets agree.
Two details from the table matter more than the average:
- The losing Octobers were not small. 2014 lost 13.4%. 2018 and 2025 lost 4.5% and 3.9%, and both of those years ended the fourth quarter far lower.
- A green October did not guarantee a green quarter. 2019, 2021 and 2022 all rose in October; two of them were down by the December close.
Best month?It depends which average you ask
"October is the best month" is true on one measure and false on another:
January
- Up years
- 6 of 12
- Average
- +0.5%
- Median
- +0.4%
February
- Up years
- 10 of 13
- Average
- +13.2%
- Median
- +12.3%
March
- Up years
- 6 of 13
- Average
- +12.9%
- Median
- −2.1%
April
- Up years
- 8 of 13
- Average
- +12.2%
- Median
- +8.2%
May
- Up years
- 7 of 13
- Average
- +10.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
June
- Up years
- 7 of 13
- Average
- −0.7%
- Median
- +1.8%
July
- Up years
- 9 of 13
- Average
- +7.9%
- Median
- +8.1%
August
- Up years
- 4 of 13
- Average
- +1.0%
- Median
- −8.4%
September
- Up years
- 5 of 13
- Average
- −3.2%
- Median
- −2.9%
November
- Up years
- 8 of 13
- Average
- +41.4%
- Median
- +8.9%
December
- Up years
- 5 of 13
- Average
- +4.0%
- Median
- −3.4%
October
- Up years
- 10 of 13
- Average
- +19.9%
- Median
- +14.8%
| Month | Up years | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6 of 12 | +0.5% | +0.4% |
| February | 10 of 13 | +13.2% | +12.3% |
| March | 6 of 13 | +12.9% | −2.1% |
| April | 8 of 13 | +12.2% | +8.2% |
| May | 7 of 13 | +10.0% | +9.0% |
| June | 7 of 13 | −0.7% | +1.8% |
| July | 9 of 13 | +7.9% | +8.1% |
| August | 4 of 13 | +1.0% | −8.4% |
| September | 5 of 13 | −3.2% | −2.9% |
| November | 8 of 13 | +41.4% | +8.9% |
| December | 5 of 13 | +4.0% | −3.4% |
| October | 10 of 13 | +19.9% | +14.8% |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · Coin Metrics daily PriceUSD · drafts/bitcoin-uptober-numbers.mjs
By average, November wins at +41.4%. One month does almost all of that work: November 2013, when Bitcoin rose about 450%. Take the median, the middle year, and October has the strongest typical month in the data at +14.8%, ahead of February.
This yearWhat a green September has meant before
September 2026 closed up 6.4% on our month-end closes. CoinGlass, measuring at a slightly different cut-off, reports 7.33%, which would make it the best September in its records. Either way, it was a green September. In 2013–2025 that happened five times. The Octobers that followed:
- 2015: +32.7%
- 2016: +14.8%
- 2023: +28.4%
- 2024: +11.2%
- 2025: −3.9%
That is four up and one down. Five cases cannot support a rule, and the most recent one is the exception. October 2025 is also the month of the largest liquidation event in crypto history: about $19 billion in leveraged positions closed in a single flash crash on October 10, 2025, as Yahoo Finance's October preview recalls.
The dip inside the monthWhy leverage turns a good October into a bad one
A monthly return hides the path. Here is the lowest daily close each October, measured against the September close:
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · Coin Metrics daily PriceUSD · drafts/bitcoin-uptober-numbers.mjs
October 2013 is the trap in the data. It ended as one of the best months in Bitcoin's history, but it first fell 17% on a closing basis. A spot holder only had to sit through it. A leveraged trader did not get that choice.
Below is a long opened at the September 2026 close of about $83,580. The liquidation price uses the simplified formula our crypto P&L calculator shows: entry × (1 − 1 ÷ leverage). Real exchanges liquidate earlier, because they also require a maintenance margin.
2×
- Liquidation near
- $41,790
- Move against you
- −50%
- Octobers that reached it
- 0 of 13
3×
- Liquidation near
- $55,720
- Move against you
- −33%
- Octobers that reached it
- 0 of 13
5×
- Liquidation near
- $66,864
- Move against you
- −20%
- Octobers that reached it
- 0 of 13
10×
- Liquidation near
- $75,222
- Move against you
- −10%
- Octobers that reached it
- 2 of 13
20×
- Liquidation near
- $79,401
- Move against you
- −5%
- Octobers that reached it
- 5 of 13
| Leverage | Liquidation near | Move against you | Octobers that reached it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× | $41,790 | −50% | 0 of 13 |
| 3× | $55,720 | −33% | 0 of 13 |
| 5× | $66,864 | −20% | 0 of 13 |
| 10× | $75,222 | −10% | 2 of 13 |
| 20× | $79,401 | −5% | 5 of 13 |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · drafts/bitcoin-uptober-numbers.mjs
At 20× leverage, the position was wiped out in five of the thirteen Octobers on closing prices alone, and four of those five Octobers ended higher. The count is a floor: intraday lows and the maintenance margin would push it up. The same arithmetic appears in our guide to position sizing. The direction of the month matters less than whether the position survives the path.
The calm versionWhat $1,000 held for October only did
For spot exposure without leverage, take $1,000 of Bitcoin bought at each September close from 2013 to 2025 and sold at the October close:
$1,000 in Bitcoin for one October, 13 times
No leverage, no fees, no taxes. Each year starts fresh at the September 30 close and ends at the October 31 close.
The spread is the real lesson. Even in this calmer version, a single month ranged from losing 13% to gaining 61%. Size the position for the bad year, not the median.
If you buy in steps during the month instead of all at once, your outcome depends on your average entry, not on the price on any one day. Say you put in four buys of $250 at $83,600, $79,000, $86,500 and $90,000. You end up with about 0.011823 BTC at an average price near $84,581. That is slightly below the simple average of the four prices, because the cheaper buys bought more coins. The average buy price calculator does this weighting for any number of buys and shows profit or loss against today's price.
Keeping scoreWhat to record if you trade Uptober
Whatever October does, this is the record worth keeping:
Every buy, with date, price, size and fee
Your average entry and cost basis come from these four numbers, not from memory or an exchange screenshot.
Leverage and liquidation price at entry
Write down the liquidation price before you open the trade. If a normal October dip reaches it, the size is wrong.
Why you entered
"Uptober" is a reason people give. Recording it lets you check later whether seasonal trades actually worked for you.
Realized gains when you sell
In the US, selling crypto at a profit is a taxable event, short-term if held a year or less. Our capital gains guide shows the calculation.
The Portfolio Tracker holds crypto next to stocks and ETFs, with live prices and on-chain wallet sync. That puts your Bitcoin position and the rest of your allocation in one view, which is the setup our guide to tracking an investment portfolio recommends. Short-term trades belong in a trading journal, where losing streaks and drawdowns are measured rather than remembered. For the tax side, see how to calculate capital gains tax.
Where these numbers come fromMethod and its limits
- Prices: Coin Metrics Community API, Bitcoin
PriceUSDdaily series, January 1, 2013 to September 30, 2026, downloaded October 1, 2026. A month's return runs from the last daily price of the previous month to the last daily price of that month. Calculations are indrafts/bitcoin-uptober-numbers.mjs. - Cross-check: our October average (+19.9%) matches the 19.92% CoinGlass figure cited by Decrypt. Our September 2026 return (+6.4%) is lower than CoinGlass's 7.33% because the two sources take the month-end price at different moments.
- September 2026 events (open near $78,500, dip to about $75,000 after the September 16 Fed hike, high of $87,354) come from Decrypt's September 29, 2026 report. The October 10, 2025 liquidation figure comes from Yahoo Finance. For how the September rate hike reaches household budgets, see our Fed rate hike guide.
- Bias: daily closes understate intraday drawdowns, so the dip and liquidation counts are lower bounds. The leverage table ignores maintenance margin, fees and funding, all of which make liquidation come sooner. 13 years is a small sample, and 2013 dominates every average it touches.
- This is a historical description, not investment advice or a prediction for October 2026.
FAQUptober, answered
What does "Uptober" mean?
It is crypto slang for October, based on Bitcoin's history of rising in that month. In 2013–2025, Bitcoin closed October higher in 10 of 13 years.
Is October Bitcoin's best month?
By median return, yes: +14.8% from 2013 to 2025, the highest of any month. By average return, November is higher, but almost entirely because of a single year, 2013.
Has Bitcoin ever fallen in October?
Yes, three times in 2013–2025: −13.4% in 2014, −4.5% in 2018 and −3.9% in 2025. In both 2018 and 2025, the fourth quarter as a whole ended lower.
Does a strong September mean a strong October?
Not reliably. After the five green Septembers in 2013–2025, October rose four times and fell once, and the fall was the most recent case, 2025. Five data points cannot support a rule.
How much leverage survives a normal October?
On closing prices, no October from 2013 to 2025 fell far enough to liquidate a 5× long. A 10× long was liquidated in two Octobers and a 20× long in five. Intraday lows and maintenance margins make the real numbers worse.
How do I work out my average Bitcoin price after several buys?
Divide the total dollars spent by the total coins received. Bigger buys at lower prices pull the average down more than a simple average of the prices would. The average buy price calculator does this for any number of buys.
