Nvidia reports its third-quarter results for fiscal 2027 on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, after the U.S. market closes. The company's announcement sets the conference call for 2 p.m. Pacific (5 p.m. Eastern), with the CFO's written commentary posted at about 1:20 p.m. Pacific. The quarter ended October 25, 2026.
Headlines will price that day in hundreds of billions of dollars of market value. This guide prices it in your money instead. If you own an S&P 500 index fund — directly, in an IRA or in a 401(k) — you own Nvidia at about 6.14 cents of every dollar, and the arithmetic of what its earnings move can do to your account is short. At that weight, a 10% Nvidia jump or drop, with every other stock unchanged, moves an S&P 500 fund by 0.61%: $61 on $10,000, $614 on $100,000.
The weightHow much of your fund is Nvidia this week
On November 12, 2026, State Street's daily holdings file for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) put Nvidia at 6.14% of the fund. It is the second-largest company in the index, behind Apple (7.90%) and just ahead of Microsoft (5.93%). Those three alone are 19.97% of the S&P 500. VOO and IVV track the same index, so their Nvidia weight is the same to within a few hundredths of a point — the fee and structure differences are in our SPY vs VOO vs IVV comparison.
That weight moves every day with the share price. Two trading days earlier, on November 10, the same file had Nvidia at 6.30%; on September 24 it was 8.19% and first. How much of the S&P 500 is Nvidia tracks that slide and explains why the index never trims a leader on its own.
The Nasdaq-100 holds a little more. On November 12, Nvidia was 6.52% of Invesco's QQQ, by the fund's daily holdings as published on stockanalysis.com. The Nasdaq-100's rules cap how much its biggest members can weigh together, so QQQ's Nvidia weight stays close to the S&P 500's even though the fund is far more concentrated in technology. That is also why VOO and QQQ react almost equally to a pure Nvidia move and differ much more on a broad tech day.
The mathWeight × move = what your fund does
The effect of one stock on an index fund is its weight times its move. Everything below follows from one line:
Nvidia weight in the fund × Nvidia's move. 6.14% × 10% = 0.61%.Fund move × what you hold in the fund. 0.61% × $50,000 = $307.Multiply again by the share of the account in that fund. 60% in an S&P 500 fund → 0.37% for a 10% Nvidia move.±5%
- S&P 500 fund move
- ±0.31%
- On $10,000
- ±$31
- On $50,000
- ±$153
- On $100,000
- ±$307
- QQQ, on $100,000
- ±$326
±10%
- S&P 500 fund move
- ±0.61%
- On $10,000
- ±$61
- On $50,000
- ±$307
- On $100,000
- ±$614
- QQQ, on $100,000
- ±$652
±15%
- S&P 500 fund move
- ±0.92%
- On $10,000
- ±$92
- On $50,000
- ±$460
- On $100,000
- ±$921
- QQQ, on $100,000
- ±$978
| Nvidia move | S&P 500 fund move | On $10,000 | On $50,000 | On $100,000 | QQQ, on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ±5% | ±0.31% | ±$31 | ±$153 | ±$307 | ±$326 |
| ±10% | ±0.61% | ±$61 | ±$307 | ±$614 | ±$652 |
| ±15% | ±0.92% | ±$92 | ±$460 | ±$921 | ±$978 |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · State Street SPY daily holdings (Nov 12, 2026); QQQ holdings via stockanalysis.com (Nov 12, 2026) · drafts/nvidia-earnings-november-2026-numbers.mjs
Read it as a scale, not a prediction. A 15% one-day move would be large for a company of Nvidia's size, and even that costs a $100,000 S&P 500 holder $921 before the other 502 companies do anything. The dollar figures are symmetric: the same table is the gain on an up day.
The recordWhat Nvidia's last eight reports actually did
Nvidia reports after the close, so the market's verdict shows up in the next session. Here is the close on report day against the next day's close for its last eight reports, alongside the S&P 500 on the same day.
Nov 20, 2024
- Nvidia next day
- +0.53%
- S&P 500 next day
- +0.53%
Feb 26, 2025
- Nvidia next day
- −8.48%
- S&P 500 next day
- −1.59%
May 28, 2025
- Nvidia next day
- +3.25%
- S&P 500 next day
- +0.40%
Aug 27, 2025
- Nvidia next day
- −0.79%
- S&P 500 next day
- +0.32%
Nov 19, 2025
- Nvidia next day
- −3.15%
- S&P 500 next day
- −1.56%
Feb 25, 2026
- Nvidia next day
- −5.46%
- S&P 500 next day
- −0.54%
May 20, 2026
- Nvidia next day
- −1.77%
- S&P 500 next day
- +0.17%
Aug 26, 2026
- Nvidia next day
- +8.74%
- S&P 500 next day
- +0.72%
| Report (after close) | Nvidia next day | S&P 500 next day |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2024 | +0.53% | +0.53% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | −8.48% | −1.59% |
| May 28, 2025 | +3.25% | +0.40% |
| Aug 27, 2025 | −0.79% | +0.32% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | −3.15% | −1.56% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | −5.46% | −0.54% |
| May 20, 2026 | −1.77% | +0.17% |
| Aug 26, 2026 | +8.74% | +0.72% |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · Daily closing prices for NVDA and the S&P 500 index (Yahoo Finance chart data, fetched Nov 13, 2026) · drafts/nvidia-earnings-november-2026-numbers.mjs
Three things stand out:
- The typical move was smaller than the headlines. Across these eight reports the average next-day move was 4.02% in one direction or the other. At today's 6.14% weight, that is about 0.25% of an S&P 500 fund, or $247 on $100,000.
- The options market usually expects more. Before the August 26 report, Reuters, citing data from ORATS, reported that Nvidia options priced a 5.4% move in either direction, against a 7.4% average post-earnings move over the previous 12 quarters. (ORATS's 12-quarter window reaches back further than our eight reports and includes larger swings, which is why its average is higher.) A comparable figure for November 17 had not been published when we wrote this; it usually appears in the days just before the report. At today's weight, 5.4% would be $331 on a $100,000 S&P 500 fund.
- The index mostly moved the same way, but not only because of Nvidia. The S&P 500 moved in Nvidia's direction on 6 of the 8 days. On some of them the index moved more than Nvidia's own weight could explain, because other chip and AI stocks moved too — and on others the market had its own reasons.
The bigger betWhen the rest of the chip trade moves with it
"Every other stock unchanged" is the friendly assumption. An Nvidia report is also read as news about AI spending, so its suppliers, its competitors and the companies buying its chips often move on the same day.
We identified 19 semiconductor companies in the November 12 SPY file. Together they are 14.99% of the S&P 500, and the 18 that are not Nvidia make up 8.86%. If Nvidia moved 10% and the rest of that group moved 5% the same way, an S&P 500 fund would move about 1.06%, or $1,057 on $100,000. That is an illustration of how the effect spreads, not a pattern we measured.
Even a 10% Nvidia move is about $614 on $100,000; the chip group moving together is what roughly doubles it.
Show these figures as a table
| Value ($ up or down on $100,000) | |
|---|---|
| Average of last 8 reports (4.02%) — $247 | 247 |
| Nvidia ±5% — $307 | 307 |
| August options estimate (5.4%) — $331 | 331 |
| Nvidia ±10% — $614 | 614 |
| Nvidia ±15% — $921 | 921 |
| Nvidia ±10%, other chips ±5% — $1,057 | 1,057 |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · drafts/nvidia-earnings-november-2026-numbers.mjs; options figure from Reuters/ORATS, Aug 25, 2026
Your accountDirect shares change the answer more than any fund
Most index-fund holders can stop at the table above. The number changes a lot for one group: people who hold Nvidia shares on top of an index fund.
90% in an S&P 500 fund, 10% in Nvidia shares
The fund already holds Nvidia at 6.14%, so the 10% of direct shares sits on top of 0.9 × 6.14% held through the fund. Earnings day then hits both parts at once.
A 401(k) is often less exposed than it looks. A target-date fund or a mix with bonds and international stocks holds only part of its money in U.S. large companies, so multiply by that share. The way to get the exact figure is to look through every fund to its holdings and then add any shares you own directly — the method in our ETF overlap guide. The Portfolio Tracker shows each holding's share of your whole portfolio across accounts, so a direct Nvidia position is never counted as "just 10%".
Both sidesWhy concentration matters — and why it often doesn't
A good critic will say this article proves too much in both directions. Both arguments are fair, so here they are side by side.
One day is noise on a long horizon
A 10% Nvidia move costs a $100,000 S&P 500 fund $614 — about 9% of a single year at an assumed 7% return. Over 20 or 30 years of contributions, a handful of earnings days barely registers. And market-cap weighting cuts both ways: the index held Nvidia on the way up without anyone choosing to, and it shrinks the position automatically if the price falls, as it did between September and November.
The bet is bigger than one ticker
Nvidia is one name, but it sits at the centre of a chip group worth about 15% of the index and an AI spending story that touches its largest customers too. When that story changes, those stocks tend to move together, and the hit is several times the Nvidia-only figure. It matters most for anyone close to withdrawing money, for portfolios with direct shares or tech funds stacked on top, and for anyone who thinks an index fund means no single-company risk.
The honest middle: for a long-horizon investor who owns only a broad index fund, an Nvidia earnings day is not a reason to do anything. What deserves a decision is the total exposure — Nvidia plus the chip group plus any shares and sector funds on top — measured against a cap you chose on purpose. If you are a few years from retirement, that decision belongs inside your overall stock-bond split; asset allocation by age shows how the split usually shifts as the withdrawal date gets closer.
Before TuesdayA short checklist
Find your real Nvidia number
Add Nvidia's weight in each fund times that fund's share of your portfolio, then add directly owned shares. For an S&P 500-only portfolio it is about 6.1% right now.
Price a 10% move in dollars
Real exposure × 10% × portfolio value. If that number would make you sell in a panic, the exposure is too high for you, whatever the results turn out to be.
Don't trade the fund around the date
Selling an index fund before a report to avoid one stock's move gives up the other 502 companies and, in a taxable account, can realise a gain. The report is after the close, so the move happens before most people can act anyway.
Rebalance with new money first
If your total is above your cap, direct new contributions elsewhere before selling. In a 401(k) you can change where new money goes without selling anything.
Re-check the weight afterwards
A big move changes Nvidia's weight in the fund. A 10% fall with everything else flat would take it from 6.14% to about 5.6%.
FAQQuestions index-fund investors ask about Nvidia earnings
When does Nvidia report earnings in November 2026?
On Tuesday, November 17, 2026, after the U.S. market closes. Nvidia's announcement says the CFO commentary goes up at about 1:20 p.m. Pacific and the conference call starts at 2 p.m. Pacific (5 p.m. Eastern). The results cover the third quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended October 25, 2026. The market's main reaction comes in the next regular session, Wednesday, November 18.
How much will my S&P 500 fund move if Nvidia moves 10%?
About 0.61%, if nothing else moves, because Nvidia was 6.14% of the index on November 12, 2026. That is $61 on $10,000, $307 on $50,000 and $614 on $100,000, up or down. In practice other chip and AI stocks often move on the same news, so the real move can be larger or smaller.
Is QQQ more exposed to Nvidia earnings than VOO?
Only slightly. Nvidia was 6.52% of QQQ and 6.14% of the S&P 500 on November 12, 2026, so a 10% Nvidia move is $652 on $100,000 in QQQ against $614 in an S&P 500 fund. QQQ holds much more of the other chip companies, so it reacts more when the whole group moves.
Does a total-market fund like VTI hold less Nvidia?
A little less. A total-market fund holds the same large companies plus thousands of smaller ones, which dilutes each large company's weight. Vanguard publishes VTI's holdings monthly, so check the latest list on the fund's page before relying on a number.
What is an options-implied move?
It is the size of move, in either direction, that options prices suggest the market expects after the report. Before Nvidia's August 26, 2026 report, Reuters cited ORATS data showing an implied 5.4% move, against an average actual move of 7.4% over the previous 12 quarters. It is an estimate of size, not of direction, and not a forecast.
Should I sell my index fund before Nvidia reports?
For a long-term investor, a single earnings day is a poor reason to sell a diversified fund: you would give up the other 502 companies to sidestep a move that has averaged about $247 per $100,000 at today's weight. If your total Nvidia exposure is higher than you want, rebalance with new money first. This is general education, not personal advice.
MethodologyWhere these numbers come from
Dates and times are from Nvidia's press release "NVIDIA Sets Conference Call for Third-Quarter Financial Results", dated October 28, 2026. S&P 500 weights come from State Street's daily holdings file for SPY as of November 12, 2026: 503 stocks after removing the cash line and a legacy rights entry (Nvidia 6.137977%, Apple 7.904389%, Microsoft 5.926991%). The November 10 and September 24 comparisons come from the same daily file on those dates. QQQ weights come from the fund's holdings as of November 12, 2026, as published on stockanalysis.com (Invesco's own download did not answer automated requests). The semiconductor group is the same 19-ticker list used in our Nvidia weight guide, identified by ticker because the file carries no sector field.
Earnings-day moves are close-to-close changes from daily closing prices for NVDA and the S&P 500 index (Yahoo Finance chart data, fetched November 13, 2026), on Nvidia's report dates from November 20, 2024 to August 26, 2026. The options figures are quoted, not calculated: Reuters, August 25, 2026, citing ORATS.
All arithmetic is reproduced in drafts/nvidia-earnings-november-2026-numbers.mjs. How the assumptions skew things: "every other stock unchanged" understates a real earnings day when the chip group moves together and overstates it when the rest of the market moves the other way. Close-to-close changes include the report-day evening and the whole next session, so they mix the earnings reaction with other news. The 7% annual return used for scale is an assumption, not a forecast. Weights change every trading day; we used the latest file available before writing.
