It estimates your share of expected block rewards from hashrate, network difficulty, block reward, and seconds per day. The probability model follows the same proof-of-work concepts described in the Bitcoin Developer Guide mining section.
Monthly net profit subtracts electricity cost and pool fees from estimated BTC revenue. Hardware cost is not subtracted from monthly net; it is used separately to estimate payback months.
Difficulty controls how hard it is to find a valid block. When network difficulty rises, the same ASIC hashrate earns less BTC unless the BTC price, block reward, or fees compensate. Bitcoin Core exposes difficulty in the official getblockchaininfo RPC.
Yes. Most miners use pools to smooth payouts, and the pool fee directly reduces gross revenue. Enter the fee from your pool dashboard; this model treats it as a percentage of mining revenue.
No. Payback estimates how many months of current net mining profit would recover the hardware cost. It does not forecast future BTC price, future difficulty changes, downtime, repairs, taxes, or resale value.
Mining profit is an energy-spread calculation, not just a BTC bet
Bitcoin mining profitability depends on the spread between expected block-reward revenue and operating costs. Start with the protocol mechanics in the Bitcoin Developer Guide, then update live difficulty from a Bitcoin Core node or a trusted explorer before making hardware decisions.
"A miner can be bullish on Bitcoin and still lose money if electricity cost, difficulty, pool fees, or uptime work against the machine."
Model electricity first
Power cost runs every hour, while BTC revenue changes with difficulty and price. Cheap, stable electricity is usually the difference between hobby mining and a viable operation.
Separate payback from profit
Monthly net profit shows operating spread. Payback asks whether that spread can recover the hardware cost before difficulty, efficiency, or resale value changes.
Refresh network inputs often
Difficulty and block reward are protocol inputs, not fixed assumptions. Use current data before comparing ASICs or signing an energy contract.
