The national average for a gallon of regular was $4.46 on September 29, 2026, according to AAA — $1.32 more than on the same day a year ago, and the highest the average has ever been at this time of year. It rose again this week for a reason that has been driving it since March: over the weekend of September 26–27, President Trump rejected Iran's offer of a seven-day truce that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and on Monday Brent crude rose $2.28 to $106.60 a barrel while stocks fell. He also told Axios he expects US negotiators to hold more talks this week, so the next move could go either way.
Nobody can tell you where the price will be in a month. What you can know is what each move costs your car. At today's prices a 30 mpg sedan driven 1,000 miles a month burns $149 of gas — $44 more than a year ago. A pickup at 18 mpg burns $248, $73 more. Below is the same arithmetic for four kinds of vehicle, what the next 25 cents, 50 cents or dollar would add, how a move in crude turns into a move at the pump, and the question the price has quietly reopened: whether an electric car now pays for itself.
How we got hereSix months of a supply shock
Early March — $3.02 to $3.50 in one week
After US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to most tankers, cutting off about a fifth of the world's oil supply. The US average for regular, $3.02 on March 2 in the Energy Information Administration's weekly survey, was $3.50 a week later.
May — the first peak, $4.50
The EIA average reached $4.50 on May 11. It eased through June and early July, to $3.78 on July 6.
September — back to the peak
The average climbed every week in September, to $4.48 in the EIA survey of September 21. AAA reports that September is on track for the highest monthly average for that month on record, about $4.30 against $3.83 in 2023. Diesel set an all-time record of $6.53 on September 22.
September 27–28 — the truce offer is rejected
Iran proposed a seven-day halt in hostilities at the UN General Assembly, with the strait reopened. President Trump rejected it; oil rose about 2% on Monday. The AAA average was $4.46 on Tuesday, September 29, two cents below the day before.
From the barrel to the pump$10 of crude ≈ 24 cents a gallon
A barrel holds 42 gallons, so every dollar on a barrel of crude is about 2.4 cents on a gallon once it works through to the pump. Monday's $2.28 is worth roughly 5 cents; a $10 move, about 24 cents; a $20 move, about 48 cents. The rule is rough in both directions. Pump prices follow crude with a lag of one to three weeks, they tend to rise faster than they fall, and the margin refiners earn on turning crude into gasoline moves on its own. But it is the right order of magnitude, and it is what turns an oil headline into a number you can plan with.
+$1
- Change at the pump, per gallon
- +2.4¢
+$2.28 — Monday, September 28
- Change at the pump, per gallon
- +5.4¢
+$10
- Change at the pump, per gallon
- +23.8¢
+$20
- Change at the pump, per gallon
- +47.6¢
| Change in crude, per barrel | Change at the pump, per gallon |
|---|---|
| +$1 | +2.4¢ |
| +$2.28 — Monday, September 28 | +5.4¢ |
| +$10 | +23.8¢ |
| +$20 | +47.6¢ |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · drafts/gas-prices-iran-oil-numbers.mjs
Your carWhat $4.46 costs a month
The bill depends on two numbers you know better than any average: how many miles you drive and how many miles you get from a gallon. Here are four typical vehicles at 12,000 miles a year — 1,000 a month — at today's AAA average, against the same day a year ago:
Hybrid, 50 mpg
- Per month now
- $89
- Per year now
- $1,069
- More than a year ago
- +$317 a year
Sedan, 30 mpg
- Per month now
- $149
- Per year now
- $1,782
- More than a year ago
- +$528 a year
Midsize SUV, 22 mpg
- Per month now
- $203
- Per year now
- $2,430
- More than a year ago
- +$720 a year
Full-size pickup, 18 mpg
- Per month now
- $248
- Per year now
- $2,971
- More than a year ago
- +$880 a year
| Vehicle | Per month now | Per year now | More than a year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid, 50 mpg | $89 | $1,069 | +$317 a year |
| Sedan, 30 mpg | $149 | $1,782 | +$528 a year |
| Midsize SUV, 22 mpg | $203 | $2,430 | +$720 a year |
| Full-size pickup, 18 mpg | $248 | $2,971 | +$880 a year |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · drafts/gas-prices-iran-oil-numbers.mjs · AAA national average, 9/29/2026 and 9/29/2025
A two-car household with an SUV and a sedan is paying about $1,250 a year more for the same driving than it did last September. A diesel pickup at 20 mpg, at the record $6.44 national diesel average, burns $3,863 a year on the same mileage.
If it keeps risingThe next 25 cents, 50 cents and dollar
The truce talks can go either way from here. Here is what each step would add on top of today's price, per month, at the same 1,000 miles:
Hybrid, 50 mpg
- +25¢ ($4.71)
- +$5
- +50¢ ($4.96)
- +$10
- +$1 ($5.46)
- +$20
Sedan, 30 mpg
- +25¢ ($4.71)
- +$8
- +50¢ ($4.96)
- +$17
- +$1 ($5.46)
- +$33
Midsize SUV, 22 mpg
- +25¢ ($4.71)
- +$11
- +50¢ ($4.96)
- +$23
- +$1 ($5.46)
- +$45
Full-size pickup, 18 mpg
- +25¢ ($4.71)
- +$14
- +50¢ ($4.96)
- +$28
- +$1 ($5.46)
- +$56
| Vehicle | +25¢ ($4.71) | +50¢ ($4.96) | +$1 ($5.46) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid, 50 mpg | +$5 | +$10 | +$20 |
| Sedan, 30 mpg | +$8 | +$17 | +$33 |
| Midsize SUV, 22 mpg | +$11 | +$23 | +$45 |
| Full-size pickup, 18 mpg | +$14 | +$28 | +$56 |
Source: CalculatorAI · calculatorai.app · drafts/gas-prices-iran-oil-numbers.mjs
Seen that way, the next move is a budget line, not a crisis. What hurts is not any one step but the total since March: the sedan driver now pays $576 a year more than at the pre-war $3.02, the pickup driver $961 more. That money comes out of the rest of the month. If your budget is built on a 50/30/20 split, fuel sits in the 50% for needs, and a rise this size can push that bucket over its limit without any new spending.
Measure your real mpg this week
Miles since the last fill-up divided by gallons to refill. It is the one input that changes every number above.
Price your month, not the gallon
Your monthly miles and your mpg in the Fuel Cost Calculator at today's price, then at +50¢. The difference is the cushion to set aside.
Give fuel its own budget line
Log fill-ups as their own category so a rise shows up as a number in week two, not as a surprise on the card statement.
Combine trips before you change cars
Driving 10% fewer miles saves the same as a 10% better mpg, at no cost. A car purchase is a years-long decision; do not make it on one month's price.
The EV questionAt $4.46, does an electric car pay back?
Electricity has not moved like oil. The average US home paid 18.31 cents per kilowatt-hour in July 2026, the latest month in the EIA's data. An EV that goes 3.3 miles on a kilowatt-hour from the wall, charging losses included, costs about 5.5 cents a mile at home. The 30 mpg sedan costs 14.9 cents at today's price.
Public fast charging is a different story. AAA puts the average at 42 cents per kWh, which works out to 12.7 cents a mile — cheaper than the sedan at $4.46, but only just. A driver who has to charge in public breaks even against a 30 mpg car at $3.82 gas. Before March that driver was losing money on every mile; at today's price they are saving a little. Against a 50 mpg hybrid, public charging loses at any price below $6.36.
So the answer depends on the charger. For someone who charges mostly at home, here is what the site's EV calculator returns for the sedan comparison, using its standard maintenance assumptions:
12,000 miles a year, 80% home charging, an $8,000 higher price for the EV
Electricity blended at 23 cents per kWh (80% home at 18.31¢, 20% public at 42¢). The payback is the price difference divided by the yearly savings. Maintenance uses the calculator's default of $900 a year for the gas car and $450 for the EV; set it to zero to see fuel alone.
The price since March has cut the payback on the same car roughly in half. That does not mean you should buy one this month. The payback assumes $4.46 lasts for years, and a reopened strait could take a dollar off the price within a season, as it did between May and July. The numbers that make an EV pay are about your driving: lots of miles, a place to charge at home, and a car you will keep past the payback. If you would need a loan to switch, what the loan term does to the total is the bigger number — see what the Fed's hike did to new car loans.
Your monthly bill and the EV payback
Every cent is multiplied by your gallons. At today's price the pickup pays $880 a year more than last September, and a home-charged EV pays back its premium in about half the time it would have at pre-war prices.
Your mpg, your miles and where you charge
Those three decide the size of the bill at any price. A hybrid at $5.46 still costs less a month than the SUV at $4.46, and public-only charging stays marginal against an efficient car.
Where to put the extraA cushion, not a panic
The rise since early March is worth $29 to $80 a month depending on the vehicle, and nobody knows whether it lasts three weeks or a year. The sensible response is small and boring: add that amount to the fuel line now, and keep it there until the price has been lower for a couple of months. If the cushion is gone by the time the card bill arrives, that is exactly the kind of shock an emergency fund is for — though a fund built for job loss should not be quietly spent on gas. Every recurring cost looks the same way once you multiply it out: $44 a month is $528 a year, the same arithmetic as a daily habit priced across twelve months.
Where these numbers come from
Pump prices are AAA national averages for September 29, 2026 (regular $4.4558, year ago $3.1354, diesel $6.4391) and AAA's September 24, 2026 report (September record for the time of year; diesel record of $6.5276 on September 22; public EV charging at 42 cents per kWh). The March-to-September path is the Energy Information Administration's weekly retail regular gasoline series: $3.015 on March 2, $3.502 on March 9, $4.500 on May 11, $3.777 on July 6 and $4.478 on September 21, 2026. Home electricity is the EIA's Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A: 18.31 cents per kWh for US residential customers in July 2026, released September 24, 2026. Crude prices and events (Brent up $2.28 to $106.60 and WTI up $1.70 to $94.11 on September 28; Iran's seven-day truce offer and its rejection; the plan for further talks) are from Reuters coverage of September 27–28. Background on the March closure of the strait is from CNN and CNBC reporting in March 2026.
All dollar figures are arithmetic in drafts/gas-prices-iran-oil-numbers.mjs, and the EV rows run through the same function as the site's EV Savings Calculator. The vehicles (18, 22, 30 and 50 mpg), the 12,000 miles a year, the EV's 3.3 miles per kWh, the 80/20 home-public charging split, the $8,000 price premium and the $900/$450 maintenance defaults are assumptions, stated so they can be replaced with your own. The crude-to-pump rule is arithmetic on 42 gallons per barrel and ignores refining margins and taxes, which also move; it overstates how fast prices follow crude and understates how slowly they come back down. Nothing here is financial advice or a forecast of oil prices.
Frequently asked questions
Why are gas prices so high in September 2026? Mainly the US–Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March, which cut off about a fifth of world oil supply. Brent crude was $106.60 a barrel on September 28 after President Trump rejected Iran's truce offer. AAA had regular at $4.46 on September 29, $1.32 above a year earlier.
How much does a $10 rise in oil add to a gallon of gas? About 24 cents. A barrel holds 42 gallons, so every dollar on crude is roughly 2.4 cents a gallon. The change reaches the pump over one to three weeks, and prices usually fall more slowly than they rise.
How much more am I paying for gas than last year? At 1,000 miles a month: about $26 a month more for a 50 mpg hybrid, $44 for a 30 mpg sedan, $60 for a 22 mpg SUV and $73 for an 18 mpg pickup, comparing $4.46 today with $3.14 a year ago. Put your own miles and mpg into the Fuel Cost Calculator for your number.
Is it cheaper to charge an EV than to buy gas right now? At home, yes by a wide margin: about 5.5 cents a mile at the July 2026 average of 18.31 cents per kWh, against 14.9 cents for a 30 mpg car. At public chargers averaging 42 cents per kWh it is about 12.7 cents a mile — only slightly cheaper, and more expensive than a 50 mpg hybrid.
Should I buy an electric car because gas is expensive? Only if the numbers work at a lower gas price too. With home charging and 12,000 miles a year, an $8,000 premium over a 30 mpg car pays back in about 5.7 years at $4.46, but 9.8 years at the pre-war $3.02. Gas can fall quickly if the strait reopens; run the payback at both prices before deciding.
